It’s not really Theory #23. It’s theory #1, I suppose. It’s been my theory at least since 1999, when I purchased a house in Baltimore City for myself and my family. The theory is simple and goes like this: Oil is a finite resource. Sooner or later, we’ll run out. There’s no viable alternative to gasoline, and even if there were, there’s already too many cars out there to replace. As gasoline prices rise, houses in the suburbs will drop in value. There will be a corresponding rise in the value of city real estate. Suburbia is predicated on cheap gasoline, whereas cities are from a time before gasoline. Cheap gas is a temporary phenomena. Buy city real estate and sell suburban real estate.
After eight years, it’s safe to say, “I told you so”. Now my theory has been borne out. However in 1999 I was the only one saying it. When I moved from DC to Baltimore in 1999, a real estate investor in the DC ‘burbs told me, “Don’t buy real estate in Baltimore City. It’ll never appreciate”! At the time, buying real estate in the city was risky. In the city you had to deal with crime, drugs, racial issues, bad schools, abandoned buildings, Mayor O’Malley, high taxes, etc etc. As recently as three years ago I posted to another blog about buying in the city and was jumped on by suburbanites. Within the past couple of years two of my neighbors bailed out* and moved to the ‘burbs. This was before $4 gas.
The neighborhood that I bought into has come back big-time since I bought in 1999. I don’t know if I could afford to buy my house if I had to buy it again now. However, there’s still “bad” neighborhoods in Baltimore City. They’re “bad” neighborhoods to some people. I’d say that one man’s “bad” neighborhood is this man’s sweet deal!
http://www.joshuaberlow.com
*In both cases, the houses sold immediately. The only house in the neighborhood that hasn’t sold immediately after being put on the market is one guy who’s holding out for $100K more than any of the others has sold for. Maybe he knows something… 