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Feb
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Posted (Joshua) in Real Estate on February-29-2008

Actually, the yadda-yadda-yadda about “The Housing Market” makes me yawn with boredom. Take a look at Jamie Smith “The Real Estate Wonk” Hopkins’ latest post on her blog entitled “A Drop - or Not“. This is the post before where she writes about Michael Jackson’s house being foreclosed on- didn’t he move to Abu Dubai or someplace? He’s not still living in Neverland, is he?

Anyway, to get back to the subject at hand here. She comments in her blog on her own article in the newspaper! That alone is good for a giggle. But if we look at her original article “Md. home prices dip in 4Q” we get stats from The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (a new one on me, and I’m from DC) and then we get an opinion from Andrew Leventis, senior economist at The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Then we get an opinion from Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody’s Economy.com. It deosn’t stop there- we get more stats from Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index, but guess what? That doesn’t track Baltimore. Whoopee!
I could barely care less about all these stats and what the friggin’ market is doing in California. What makes real estate interesting is that each house is different! Each neighborhood is different. (Although this is less true in suburbia than it is in Baltimore City). We’re not talking about a commodity where each unit is just like every other unit. Each deal is different. Each house has a different history. My neighbor got his house for less than $15,000 in 1975! Some houses are overpriced, some houses are a deal. According to who? Well, I’m not a senior economist with OFHEO, I’m not even a columnist at The Baltimore Sun, but I have opinions. I don’t have opinions on entire friggin’ markets, I have opinions on houses. They’re just my opinions. That’s all.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

jberlow@cityliferealty.net

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Comments:
ChuckD on February 29th, 2008 at 11:40 pm #

I usually really enjoy this blog, but I’m not sure I understand the point of this post at all! You rail against a blog and an article citing professional opinions and various statistics on the real estate market (like it or not this is the way we analyze a market). Then you basically state you don’t have the qualifications to advise on these sorts of matters, but that you have opinions on houses. I’m not even sure what this is supposed to mean!

Look, Jamie at the Sun is trying to educate people. Her cross publicizing her article in her blog is common practice. I get RSS feeds, see an update that she posted an article and read it. Otherwise I’d likely miss the article as it quickly gets buried in the business section which I forget to check sometimes for weeks.

You seem to want to belittle someone who is just trying to post information from all sorts of sources for us (including expert analysis and stats), but you offer your vague “opinions” with no facts to back them up. Since we know you are a real estate agent, we can make our own assumptions about your opinions and motivations here. Yes, almost every house is different, and should be viewed as such when purchasing. But do you yourself not pull lists of comps when a client is determining a price? We still use comparisons when shopping for houses! I’m shocked information on your industry bores you so much! Perhaps you should look into a new field.

Joshua on March 1st, 2008 at 12:23 am #

I downloaded a spreadsheet from Zillow today that shows that houses in Baltimore have appreciated by
11.7870313433334% annually over the past five years. If you want it, e-mail me off-list and I’ll send it to you as an attachment. According to an e-mail I received from Zillow today, house prices in Baltimore appreciated 2.1% in the past year. You could spend years diddling with stats, but at some point you have to put a key in a lock and actually look at a house.

ChuckD on March 1st, 2008 at 1:00 am #

While I totally agree with your last sentence there, I don’t trust Zillow as an accurate source for stats. Maybe it improved in the past year, but last time I checked, it seemed way off compared to what I was seeing as far as actual sales prices. It’s a tool that might be good for searches early on in the buying process, but I would prefer to look at actual sales comps in the past 6 months. And then one needs to be aware that sellers are more recently bringing money to settlement, further reducing the “value” below the tax record sales price.

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